verschärfter EPAM-Anstieg!

[Peter Kuklok]

Impact scheint kurz bevor zu stehen. Bt-Werte steigen auch seit einigen Minuten.

[Peter Kuklok]

...

[Peter Kuklok]

Cary Oler

"A weak shock has been detected by ACE. If this is the big disturbance we
were anticipating, it'll be a real disappointment. We presently think it may
be related to an M-class flare that occurred on 29 October. The big one
should still be out there. We'll see."

Quelle: STD-Forum

[Peter Wloch]

Last updated 30 Oct 2003 17:00 UT

SUBJ: IPS UPGRADED GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/51
ISSUED AT 30/0230Z OCTOBER 2003
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A full halo CME, observed on 29 October, was associated
with the X10 flare observed at 2040UT/29 October. The CME
is expected to arrive in the second half of 31 October
(UT day) or early hours on 01 November (UT day). The CME
activity is expected to raise the geomagnetic activity
upto minor to major storm levels with possiblility of
going upto severe storm levels at times. If the north-
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
goes south, then the geomagnetic activity may be expected
to go towards the higher side of the forecast. However,
if Bz remains northwards, the lower side of the forecaste
may be more appropriate.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 31 OCTOBER 2003 TO 01 NOVEMBER 2003
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
31 Oct: Unsettled to minor storm. Major storm possible.
01 Nov: Minor to major storm. Severe storm possible.

------------------
: Cary Oler

: "A weak shock has been detected by ACE. If this is the big
: disturbance we
: were anticipating, it'll be a real disappointment. We presently
: think it may
: be related to an M-class flare that occurred on 29 October. The big
: one
: should still be out there. We'll see."

: Quelle: STD-Forum