MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (STD)

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 20:40 UTC, 26 SEPTEMBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC, 27 SEPTEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 28 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 28 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 20, 15, 15 (27 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN

GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An erupting solar filament observed on 24 September has the potential to
produce an Earth-bound impact on 27 and 28 September. Although there is no
significant hard evidence to suggest that mass from this filament eruption is
strongly directed Earthward, the event was well positioned for producing an
earthward-directed impact. As a result, we are assuming at least some mass
from this event will reach the Earth. However, we must note that there is
also a chance the Earth might not observe anything. If an impact is observed,
solar wind conditions should become capable of enhancing levels of auroral
activity over the high and upper-middle latitude regions. The fact that there
will be no moon to interfere with observations should provide optimally dark
skies for observing auroral activity. Observers should therefore be aware of
the possibility for possible moderately strong substorm activity on 27 and 28
September. Some activity may become briefly strong enough to be observed from
some dark-sky central middle latitude locations, if the disturbance
materializes.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
28 September. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **

[lutz schenk]

Hallo allerseits,

hat mitr sehr gut gefallen die Synopsis.
Sehr differenziert, und genau die Datenlage wiederspiegelnd.
Auch die Gründe für eventuell/vielleicht, oder auch nicht gut dargelegt.

Gruß Lutz

[Peter Kuklok]

"The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected"

Quelle: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Grüße
Peter