STD - CME Impact Prediction *LINK*

[Peter Kuklok]

Event #54 - 18 November 2003
Issued: 09:35 UTC, 19 November 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class M3.2/2N Flare in Region 501 at 07:52 UTC on 18 November 2003
Type II: 478 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 1175 km/sec (South and West)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 19:00 UTC on 19 November to 15:00 UTC on 20 November
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 00:00 UTC on 20 November 2003 (7:00 pm EST on 19 November)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #54 NOTES:

This disturbance, following on the heels of Event #53 (see below), should enhance storm potential on 20 November and produce lingering effects into 21 November. Periods of major to severe geomagnetic storm activity are considered possible with this disturbance.