bei anfang war es sehr gut, Washington State sah man 180 degree halo. Niemals so gut gesehen dort, aber seit wann...
Danach Bz Nord und damit war es fast schluss...
Hier dass bericht von (glaub ich) der Solar Dispatch:
"A strong shock front associated with the X17 solar flare arrived abruptly at 06:12 UTC on 29 October. The disturbance produced periods of severe storm activity for several hours before the IMF turned northward and began shutting activity down. We expect activity may intensify again within the next 6 to 12 hours."
Vieleicht sind diesmal doch die Europeaner dran und nicht die Ami's...aber immerhin heist es: wo muss mann hinfahren oder wo hat man Gluekc und soll mann ruhig zu Hause bleiben????
Bisher: Amerikanen nicht so gluecklich..
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Ulrich Rieth
Sichtungen bis Süd-Texas..also sehe ich das anders
Ich weiss zwar nicht, was die Leute erwarten, aber wenn ich auf 33°N (geographisch) für 20min Polarlicht sehen kann, dann ist das schon gewaltig.
Hier die Karte der Sichtungen, die dem STD bisher gemeldet wurden (Achtung, aktualisiert sich fortlaufend.)
Hier die Karte der Sichtungen, die dem STD bisher gemeldet wurden (Achtung, aktualisiert sich fortlaufend.)
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Jorge Sereno
Klar, aber es dauerte nicht so lang...
auf Englisch (Entschuldigung):
Oke, I already wrote that in Washington State one person observed a full 180 degrees Halo. I know this is special, and what you wrote about Texas is also something extreme. But if you ocnsider that this happens to be a X17 Flare, it is rather dissapointing that the storm has subsided so quikly and the field is now North. KP is 7 and predicted to fall to 5. So if this is true and will become a reality, this must have been about it for teh Americans. Only when this storm will carry on for at least another 18 hours many of them will see northern lights IF the storm will pick up again and Bz will turn southward. Youalready noted that on the Bastille day storm this happened after a while.
Based on the lattitude reached it is special, based on length it certainly is not and I believe some observers in the US noted this also..
In april 2000 northern lights were seen in our region from about 20-21 o'clock till 3 o'clock, with major activity at the start and after 3-4 hours...If I am correct this has not happened yet in the US.
Again: considering the extreme magnitude of this flare combined with an (almost) perfect Earth direction, I can imagine some dissapointed. Certainly for the northern states who can spot beautiful Northern Lights coming form Coronal Holes.....
Oke, I already wrote that in Washington State one person observed a full 180 degrees Halo. I know this is special, and what you wrote about Texas is also something extreme. But if you ocnsider that this happens to be a X17 Flare, it is rather dissapointing that the storm has subsided so quikly and the field is now North. KP is 7 and predicted to fall to 5. So if this is true and will become a reality, this must have been about it for teh Americans. Only when this storm will carry on for at least another 18 hours many of them will see northern lights IF the storm will pick up again and Bz will turn southward. Youalready noted that on the Bastille day storm this happened after a while.
Based on the lattitude reached it is special, based on length it certainly is not and I believe some observers in the US noted this also..
In april 2000 northern lights were seen in our region from about 20-21 o'clock till 3 o'clock, with major activity at the start and after 3-4 hours...If I am correct this has not happened yet in the US.
Again: considering the extreme magnitude of this flare combined with an (almost) perfect Earth direction, I can imagine some dissapointed. Certainly for the northern states who can spot beautiful Northern Lights coming form Coronal Holes.....
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Ulrich Rieth
Some comments *long*
Hi Jorge!
I think we are both right, but I would like to give you some other comments to think about.
1st of all, the 2000/04/06-07 event was exceptional.
If I look at the solar wind data from that storm, I still wonder how it could be that intense.
Now looking at the current event.
Many people just transfer the magnitude of a solar X-RAY flare to the following geoMAGNETIC storm. This is a great mistake.
You can see very strong x-ray flares, like the "low" x-class events from 10484 and 10486 (before the X17), that bring only minor if any geomagnetic storm.
Everything, really everything depends on the internal magnetic structure of the CME which is ejected simultaniously with the x-ray flare.
So, if one has a powerfuf flare, there still can be a CME with permanent or predominant north-pointing IMF, which, as a matter of fact, give no geomagnetic storm at all.
I our ongoing case, we have had a vast impact of the shockfront of this CME into earth' magnetosphere. This led to an immediate start of a big geomagnetic storm, a G5 event!
For about 3 hours after the impact, the IMF of still the outer regions of the CME was oriented southward, which helped to continue that storm.
In the following 3 hours we saw north pointing fields and still, just initiated by the major impact and the first phase of the storm, the folks in northern America could observe aurora way down into the low latitudes.
I mean, if one says this is not enough, I can't help him.
But I am notyet finished, sorry for the long posting.
If you read Cary Oler's AstroAlert from last night carefully, you will find, that even in his euphoria he always stayed calm enough to tell the people out there, that a storm of this proposed magnitude can also manifest just as a lull, because of the big unknown, the configuration of the IMF.
Ok, and finally, this event is far from beeing over yet, we have just entered the magnetic cloud of this CME and those clouds are normally huge. I would not be surprised if it lasts for more than 18 or maybe even 24 hours from now on.
So, if you have the chance to get into a clear observing position, take it and watch the heavenly theatre unfold his magic curtain.
Clear skies!
Ulrich
I think we are both right, but I would like to give you some other comments to think about.
1st of all, the 2000/04/06-07 event was exceptional.
If I look at the solar wind data from that storm, I still wonder how it could be that intense.
Now looking at the current event.
Many people just transfer the magnitude of a solar X-RAY flare to the following geoMAGNETIC storm. This is a great mistake.
You can see very strong x-ray flares, like the "low" x-class events from 10484 and 10486 (before the X17), that bring only minor if any geomagnetic storm.
Everything, really everything depends on the internal magnetic structure of the CME which is ejected simultaniously with the x-ray flare.
So, if one has a powerfuf flare, there still can be a CME with permanent or predominant north-pointing IMF, which, as a matter of fact, give no geomagnetic storm at all.
I our ongoing case, we have had a vast impact of the shockfront of this CME into earth' magnetosphere. This led to an immediate start of a big geomagnetic storm, a G5 event!
For about 3 hours after the impact, the IMF of still the outer regions of the CME was oriented southward, which helped to continue that storm.
In the following 3 hours we saw north pointing fields and still, just initiated by the major impact and the first phase of the storm, the folks in northern America could observe aurora way down into the low latitudes.
I mean, if one says this is not enough, I can't help him.
But I am notyet finished, sorry for the long posting.
If you read Cary Oler's AstroAlert from last night carefully, you will find, that even in his euphoria he always stayed calm enough to tell the people out there, that a storm of this proposed magnitude can also manifest just as a lull, because of the big unknown, the configuration of the IMF.
Ok, and finally, this event is far from beeing over yet, we have just entered the magnetic cloud of this CME and those clouds are normally huge. I would not be surprised if it lasts for more than 18 or maybe even 24 hours from now on.
So, if you have the chance to get into a clear observing position, take it and watch the heavenly theatre unfold his magic curtain.
Clear skies!
Ulrich
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Jorge Sereno
Even longer, sorry!!
Ulrich,
It is not that i want to make this some sort of battle of who knows what or what I know and what I don't nor that I am right and you are wrong. But we may hvae different opinions about some things I guess.
I know that the north pointing field is first of all a key factor and second of all difficult to predict. I know that even a X17 flare cannot give us any certainty on that basis.
But based on the all other factors you can have some expectations. Indeed that is what many hobbyist have and what makes hobby's with some or large uncertainties exciting (among other things of course).
In our case: the larger the event (along with a strong Earthdirected component, the bigger the chance that expectations become high (and in cases unrealistic) and when a the duration is relativey short (like this event till now) this is a bit dissapointing for those who live on the other side of the Atlantic (I suppose). I can imagine that and it is at least what I feel right now.
If you know that coronal streams trigger bautiful aurora's on many occassions north of 53 degrees GM lattitude I think it is normal to expect a lotmore than that from an X17 flare.
My response was also more/less an answer to some here who said things like: the Americans are again sitting in the front row (which indeed they usually do, if only for their northern gm lattitude..).
So based on expectations I still think this is some sort of bummer for the US aurora adepts (but we should aks them), based on logic and the usual uncertainty you know there are no garantuees. But then again: you should never expect anything and be happy with everything you see if you are always logic. I don't think that many aurora enthusiasts or any other enthusaist have that approach towards an event that more than any other incoporates the chance to becoem a "once in a lifetime" one. Expectances can rise and many hobbyists in various fields therefor encounter disappointment and excitement every once in a while because they have expectations...
Just my thoughts. All my respect to you and your comments.
I still have rather clear skies here in SW Holland, guess it will be over by when it really becomes dark..
Jorge
It is not that i want to make this some sort of battle of who knows what or what I know and what I don't nor that I am right and you are wrong. But we may hvae different opinions about some things I guess.
I know that the north pointing field is first of all a key factor and second of all difficult to predict. I know that even a X17 flare cannot give us any certainty on that basis.
But based on the all other factors you can have some expectations. Indeed that is what many hobbyist have and what makes hobby's with some or large uncertainties exciting (among other things of course).
In our case: the larger the event (along with a strong Earthdirected component, the bigger the chance that expectations become high (and in cases unrealistic) and when a the duration is relativey short (like this event till now) this is a bit dissapointing for those who live on the other side of the Atlantic (I suppose). I can imagine that and it is at least what I feel right now.
If you know that coronal streams trigger bautiful aurora's on many occassions north of 53 degrees GM lattitude I think it is normal to expect a lotmore than that from an X17 flare.
My response was also more/less an answer to some here who said things like: the Americans are again sitting in the front row (which indeed they usually do, if only for their northern gm lattitude..).
So based on expectations I still think this is some sort of bummer for the US aurora adepts (but we should aks them), based on logic and the usual uncertainty you know there are no garantuees. But then again: you should never expect anything and be happy with everything you see if you are always logic. I don't think that many aurora enthusiasts or any other enthusaist have that approach towards an event that more than any other incoporates the chance to becoem a "once in a lifetime" one. Expectances can rise and many hobbyists in various fields therefor encounter disappointment and excitement every once in a while because they have expectations...
Just my thoughts. All my respect to you and your comments.
I still have rather clear skies here in SW Holland, guess it will be over by when it really becomes dark..
Jorge
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