STD - Forecast Notes Update *LINK*

[Peter Kuklok]

Latest Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Conditions

The anticipated solar disturbance was detected by the ACE spacecraft at
14:48 UTC (10:48 am EDT) and impacted the Earth's magnetic field at 15:25
UTC (11:25 am EDT) on 24 October. Almost immediately, the solar wind
pressure compressed the Earth's magnetopause (the boundary between the
solar wind and the quiet inner-region of the Earth's magnetic field) inside
geosynchronous orbital altitudes, exposing spacecraft near the noon sector of
their geosynchronous orbits to more hazardous solar wind conditions for about
30 minutes. Additional magnetopause crossings are possible. Major to severe
geomagnetic storming is expected over the next 24 hours. Auroral activity is
expected to intensify to stronger levels as this disturbance evolves. A middle
latitude auroral activity WARNING is being issued. Low latitude regions may
also want to keep an eye on conditions, although at the present time,
conditions do not strongly support low-latitude sightings of activity.

Solar Activity Update

Major solar flare activity is expected over the next 72 hours from Regions 486
and/or 484. Both of these spot complexes are still complex enough to support
the production of very energetic solar activity.

[Heiko]

sieht ja so schlecht nicht aus - das wird ne lange nacht

Gruss Heiko

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

WARNING ISSUED: 17:30 UTC, 24 OCTOBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 25 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24-25 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (24 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND

POSSIBLY NORTHERN COLORADO TO NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN IOWA TO ILLINOIS TO

INDIANA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN

VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND. WHETHER THESE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WILL DEPEND

STRONGLY ON THE STATE OF THE SPACE WEATHER DISTURBANCE BY THE TIME NORTH

AMERICA REACHES DARKNESS. THE DISTURBANCE MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THEN.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND

TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. EUROPEAN REGIONS ARE MUCH

BETTER LOCATED TO OBSERVE PERIODS OF STRONG ACTIVITY WITH THIS

DISTURBANCE.

NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS OF

AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The impact of an anticipated coronal mass ejection has elevated levels
of auroral activity to storm sporadic levels. Periods of minor to major
auroral storming should result in visible periods of auroral activity over
widespread middle latitude regions. The best locations to observe activity
will be northern Russia and Europe. Although conditions are not yet favorable
for intense storming, this disturbance may have the potential to produce
periods of respectable auroral activity.

There is a fair chance North American observers will catch the tail-end
of the disturbance after darkness falls. It is still too early to be able to
establish firm predictions on the duration or intensity of activity,
particularly as far as 12 hours into the future. We recommend observers pay
attention to space weather conditions by visity sites such as:
www.sec.noaa.gov or www.spacew.com for updated information.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
25 October. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. It is probable it will be downgraded to a watch. There are
other disturbances enroute to the Earth that could prolong storm-level
activity for the next 48 to 72 hours. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Warning **