STD - CME impact Vorhersage *LINK*

[Heiko]

Event #45 - 22 October 2003
Issued: 04:45 UTC, 23 October 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Multiple eruptive filaments near Region 484 at ~08:00 UTC on 22 October 2003
Type II: 650 km/sec at 09:38 UTC (not confirmed to be definitely associated with the CME)
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 898 km/sec (beyond 10 solar radii)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 06:00 UTC on 24 October to 06:00 UTC on 25 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 14:00 UTC, 24 October 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD (see notes)

EVENT #45 NOTES:

There is notable uncertainty regarding the potential direction the IMF may turn when the shock impacts. This is due to the possibility that the heliospheric current sheet is probably caught up within the disturbance and its structure has probably been altered by the recent CME activity. The prediction above is assuming the HCS has not been altered significantly. The behavior of the IMF within the disturbance is likely to be difficult to predict given the anticipated influence of the HCS.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Ulrich Rieth]

...und das lässt hoffentlich immer alle Alarmglocken schallen.
Der CME vom April 2000 wäre ohne Beteiligung des HCS auch eher harmlos gewesen.
Das könnte also noch eine extreme Überraschung geben, wenn die Parameter stimmen.
Gruß

Ulrich