STD: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning

[Dirk Obudzinski]

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POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

ISSUED: 03:55 UTC, 19 OCTOBER 2003

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SYNOPSIS:

New Region 484 (N05E68 at 00Z on 19 October) has experienced
considerable and rapid growth over the last 24 hours, particularly in the
north-central area of the spot complex where a magnetic delta configuration
is developing. The region is now approximately 240 millionths in size.
C-class flare activity has increased notably during this time along with an
attendant increase in background x-ray flux levels.

Region 484 is rapidly developing an increased potential for major flare
activity. Major M and/or X-class flare activity may become possible from this
region within the next 24 to 72 hours, particularly if growth rates persist.

The area of greatest activity is expected to be within the area
encompassing the magnetic delta, which appears to contain notable levels of
magnetic shear, increasing magnetic gradients and a favorable east-west
dominated inversion line within the vicinity of the delta configuration.