STD: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 14:10 UTC, 16 SEPTEMBER 2003

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** RESENT AT 19:45 UTC DUE TO MAILER FAILURE **

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 20 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 - 19 (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16 - 20 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 35, 25, 20 (17 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 2 TO 3 DAYS

MINOR BELT = 3 TO 4 DAYS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN

GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a high velocity solar wind stream emanating from a well
placed solar coronal hole are producing periods of enhanced auroral activity
over the high and dark-sky middle latitude regions. Periods of moderately
strong auroral substorming are expected over the next 3 to 4 days. Some
dark-sky middle latitude regions stand a fairly good chance of observing
activity during this time.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
20 September. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **