STD update: 20:40 UTC, 03 April 2004

[Ulrich Rieth]

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

Last Update: 20:40 UTC (3:40 pm EST) 03 April 2004

The impact of a minor coronal mss ejection was observed at 14:14 UTC on 03 April. Conditions are becoming favorable for producing periods of enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity. A mid-latitude aurora watch has been issued.

Solar Activity Update

M-class flare activity continues to be possible from Region 582. Minor renewed growth was observed today near the leader spot that promoted the production of more frequent C-class flare activity.

[Andreas Wehrle]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 20:30 UTC, 03 APRIL 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 09 APRIL

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 03 - 06 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 03 - 09 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 18, 20, 30 (03 APRIL - 06 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 3 DAYS
MINOR BELT = 6 DAYS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR - FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO
SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
VISIBLE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THIS LINE, SUCH AS INTO DARK-SKY SITES OF
NORTHERN GERMANY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A coronal mass ejection impacted the Earth near 14:14 UTC on 03 April.
Southward excursions of the IMF are leading to enhanced potentials for
auroral substorm activity. Minor geomagnetic and auroral storm activity will
be possible over the next 24 hours as a result. Soon after this disturbance
passes, effects of a coronal hole based disturbance will commence and may
prolong the potential for auroral activity over the middle latitudes.
Unfortunately, the near-full moon will make observations of activity
difficult.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
09 April. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **
Gruß AJ ( Andreas Wehrle )