MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 03:35 UTC, 28 FEBRUARY 2004
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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 02 MARCH
PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 FEBRUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 20, 18, 18 (28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 TO 96 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO
MAINE.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN
FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.
SYNOPSIS...
The compressive leading edge effects of a higher velocity coronal hole
based solar wind stream are being observed at the present time. Periods of
active to minor auroral storm conditions could develop over the next 24 to 96
hours, but with heaviest emphasis for the next 24 to 48 hours. Some dark sky
middle latitude locations may spot periods of activity. Although no
significant auroral storm activity is anticipated, some localized substorms
could be moderately strong.
This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
02 March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Watch **
Nichts für uns aber die PL-Cams werden sich freuen
Gruß AJ Andreas Wehrle