Watch beim STD

[AndreP]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 06:50 UTC on 24 August 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 24 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 22, 15, 10 (24 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *AUGUST* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN WASHINGTONN STATE TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF
NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *AUGUST* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
RUSSIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VISIBLE ACTIVITY TO BE OBSERVED
FROM NORTHERN GERMANY.

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a coronal mass ejection from a recent major M5 solar flare
are now being observed. The disturbance is not spectacular at the present
time, but still has the potential to produce periods of active to storm-level
auroral activity over the next several (3 to 18) hours. Lunar luminosity will
inhibit views of activity, but periods of activity should still be strong
enough to be observed from many dark-sky mid-latitude locations.

This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
24 August. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

... aber bei uns wirds wohl noch etwas dauern bis es dunkel wird ...

Vll gibts aber schöne Bilder aus Alaska / Nord-Amerika ...

Naja und außerdem sieht es so aus als wenn ein zweiter Impact den Bz kräftig in den positiven Bereich gedreht hat ...

Es grüßt Andre aus Gelsenkirchen

[AndreP]

jetzt gehts aber ab ....

muss mich korrigieren :

BZ - 50 nt !!!!!!
Bt 58 nt !!!!!!

jetzt fehlts nur noch an Dichte !

Ein Datenevent wirds auf jeden Fall, schade dass der Mond heute abend
stört bzw dieser nicht mal mehr zu sehen sein wird ... weil das wetter so bescheiden ist heut nacht

[PeterKuklok]

Andre kannste evtl. den Betreff editieren?

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 09:00 UTC on 24 August 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 25 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24-25 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 65, 30, 15, 12 (24 - 27 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *AUGUST* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *AUGUST* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY IF SUITABLE STORM CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE DURING DARKNESS.

SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a coronal mass ejection from a recent major M5 solar
flare has become much stronger than anticipated. Intense magnetic fields
within the disturbance are currently being observed that have a favorable
orientation for producing periods of strong auroral storm activity. Major to
severe geomagnetic and auroral storming is expected to commence within the
next several hours, particularly if current field orientations persist.
Widespread mid-latitude observations of auroral activity may be observed,
depsite the brightness of the moon. We do not expect the activity to persist
into the evening hours of 24 August over North America.

This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
25 August. Note that this is 24 hours later than the previous watch that was
released. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **

[wolfgang hamburg]

Moin moin,

jetzt fehlts nur noch an Dichte !

bei dem Bz und und den Speedwerten reicht das bissel Dichte allemal. Nur der Zeitpunkt und die Wolken sind suboptimal, sollte aber bis abends reichen.

wolfgang