Middle latitude auroral activity watch

[Peter Wloch]

Guten Morgen!
Ob da noch fuer heute Abend/Nacht was uebrig bleibt ?

Vom STD:
Updated: 03:35 UTC 10 July (11:35 pm EDT, 09 July)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update
A minor coronal mass ejection has impacted the Earth and is producing periods of enhanced geomagnetic and high-latitude auroral activity. Periods of minor auroral storming are possible tonight, which may provide middle latitudes with an opportunity to observe sporadic periods of activity.

>>>A middle latitude auroral activity watch is active.<<<

At least one other CME disturbance (as well as a coronal hole based disturance) are expected during the next 72 hours, which should keep activity at fairly active levels through 11 and 12 July.

Solar Activity Update
M-class flare activity remains likely during the next 24 to 72 hours. There is also a slight chance of a major flare.

[Peter Wloch]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 03:30 UTC on 10 July 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 12 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-12 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 25, 15 (10 JULY - 13 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18-24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: VERY LOW TO NIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *JULY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN WASHINGTONN STATE TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF
NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *JULY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
RUSSIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VISIBLE ACTIVITY TO BE OBSERVED
FROM NORTHERN GERMANY.

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The first of several potential disturbances from the Sun has arrived and
has the potential to produce periods of enhanced auroral activity during the
next 24 to 72 hours (but particularly during the next 24 hours). Many middle
latitude dark-sky sites may observe periods of auroral activity.

This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
12 July. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

[Lutz Schenk]

Hallo Zusammen,

wie es aussieht, ist die Erde kurz nach 10 UT in die magnetic cloud eingetreten.

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

Schön zu sehen am deutlich ansteigenden Bt, absinken in Bz, Einbruch der Dichte und Absinken der Temp. Gleichzeitig geht phi auf ~180°.
Von daher Bilderbuchmäßig.

Diese magn. Blasen können ja so ca. 12h andauern, aber dann wäre es zur Dunkelheit vorbei damit.

Na mal schauen, es waren ja so einige CME unterwegs. Vielleicht kommt ja noch was.

Viele Grüße,

Lutz

[Christoph Prall]

Schön zu sehen der Unterschied....

SAM Hesinki


SAM Bad Honnef

[Wolfgang Dzieran]

Hallo,

Also, ich weiß ja nicht, aber wenn ich das so lese:

SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
RUSSIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VISIBLE ACTIVITY TO BE OBSERVED
FROM NORTHERN GERMANY.

dann frage ich mich ja, wo in diesen Breiten es heute Nacht so dunkel wird, dass da tatsächlich noch etwas zu sehen sein wird.

Und leider geht die Aktivität ohnehin zurück

Ansonsten wäre es ja schön. Im Gegensatz zu gestern haben wir heute nur noch Cirren als Bewölkung, doch einigermaßen dunkel wird es erst nach Mitternacht, da droht dann schon der nächste Arbeitsstag. Ab nächste Woche ist Urlaub an der Ostsee geplant, da ist die Sonnenaktivität sicherlich wieder ganz vorbei, ob es wohl wenigstens für einen Sonennbrand reichen wird?

Wolfgang
aus Bad Lippspringe