STD REPORT, Aurora bis Italy !!

[andreas hermann]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 01:00 UTC on 16 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 03:00 UTC ON 16 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 18 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 16-17 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16-18 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 70, 30, 12 (16 - 19 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

A potentially significant coronal mass ejection has been observed
containing an Earthward-directed component. It is presently expected to
arrive sometime during the mid to late UTC hours of 16 January and has the
potential to produce periods of severe auroral storm activity. That activity,
if it materializes, may become visible well into the lower latitudes. A low
latitude auroral activity watch is being issued in concert with this middle
latitude auroral activity warning. The most intense periods of activity will
likely be late on 16 January and into 17 January (UTC days). For North
American observers, the best opportunity will be on the evening of 16
January and possibly into 17 January. A second strong CME was also recently
observed in association with another major class X2 solar flare that will
likely prolong disturbed levels of auroral activity into 17 and possibly 18
January (an analysis of this latest event is underway).

This is a potentially significant event. Observers interested in seeing
auroral activity are encouraged to watch the skies on 16 through 18 January.
Additional major levels of solar activity are possible over the next several
days.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
18 January. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **