20050107 aurora warnung K8 !!

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Peter van der Woude
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20050107 aurora warnung K8 !!

Beitrag von Peter van der Woude » 7. Jan 2005, 21:25

anfang ist 23:30 mez , starke sturm k8

(hier leider windstarke 9 und 8/8 )
Zuletzt geändert von Peter van der Woude am 7. Jan 2005, 23:15, insgesamt 4-mal geändert.
SAM-Maassluis, NL
'alle' magnetogrammen weltweit:
http://home.kpn.nl/woude465/pa1six.htm

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Ulrich Rieth
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halte maximal einen Watch für angebracht...

Beitrag von Ulrich Rieth » 7. Jan 2005, 22:04

Hallo Peter!

Wollte aber auch schon die ganze Zeit was posten.
Ich weiß nicht genau, was ich davon halten soll.
Wahrscheinlich ist es eine Kompression, die mit dem HCS und den zahlreichen CMEs der letzten Zeit zusammenhängt.
Das würde zumindest die hohen Werte von Bt und den Weg dahin erklären können.
Leider ist die Sonnenwindgeschwindigkeit und vor allem die -dicht für ausreichende Aktivität zu niedrig.
Über dem SGO gibt es, über den Wolken, deutlich sichtbare Aktivität, die bislang aber auch nicht außergewöhnlich ist.
Ich würde also nicht damit rechnen, dass es für Mitteleuropa da was zu sehen gibt.
Die nördlichen Staaten der USA könnten sich aber auf ein hübsches kleines Display einstellen.
Gruß

Ulrich

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Peter van der Woude
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Beitrag von Peter van der Woude » 7. Jan 2005, 22:14

Hi Ulrich,

genau, ich hätte normalerweise keine meldung gemacht aber das magnetfeld hat die letzte tagen bei minimale -Bz weten schon so stark überreagiert das nichts sagen irgentwie nicht richrig gewesen wäre.
Von wertvolle dichte/geschwindichkeit ist kaum die rede aber was soll's, ist ja auch nicht 100% notwendig
SAM-Maassluis, NL
'alle' magnetogrammen weltweit:
http://home.kpn.nl/woude465/pa1six.htm

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Ulrich Rieth
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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (22:00UTC, 07.Jan 05)

Beitrag von Ulrich Rieth » 7. Jan 2005, 22:27

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 22:00 UTC, 07 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 JANUARY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-08 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 18, 10, 10 (07 - 10 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO
CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for producing periods of
moderate to strong auroral storm activity over many middle and high latitude
regions. A strong southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field is
in-progress. The auroral oval is also in the process of migrating
equatorward. The conditions should result in periods of visible auroral
activity over many middle latitude regions, particularly if the southward
configuration of the solar wind magnetic fields continues.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
08 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com. For discussions of activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **
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Marjorie Soto
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Beitrag von Marjorie Soto » 7. Jan 2005, 22:42

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 22:00 UTC, 07 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 JANUARY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-08 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 18, 10, 10 (07 - 10 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO
CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for producing periods of
moderate to strong auroral storm activity over many middle and high latitude
regions. A strong southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field is
in-progress. The auroral oval is also in the process of migrating
equatorward. The conditions should result in periods of visible auroral
activity over many middle latitude regions, particularly if the southward
configuration of the solar wind magnetic fields continues.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
08 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com. For discussions of activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

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Marjorie Soto
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Beitrag von Marjorie Soto » 7. Jan 2005, 22:45

OOPS :lol: :oops:

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Marjorie Soto
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Beitrag von Marjorie Soto » 7. Jan 2005, 22:57

Conditions are shaping up very well for producing periods of potentially strong
auroral substorming over the next several hours. If you have clear skies (we
don't), take this opportunity to look skyward.
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Ulrich Rieth
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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING (Upgraded: 23:30UT)

Beitrag von Ulrich Rieth » 7. Jan 2005, 23:53

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Upgraded: 23:30 UTC on 07 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-08 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 18, 10, 10 (08 - 11 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 03-06 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 06-12 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL
RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Auroral storm activity is commencing over the high and some middle
latitude regions. Moderate to strong auroral substorm activity is expected
over the middle latitudes during the next 3 to 6 hours, with additional
substorming possible thereafter. Observer are encouraged to watch the skies
tonight for possible activity.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
08 January. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **
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