Aurora Watch 1.3

[Lutz Schenk]

Hallo Zusammen,

ich möchte hier mal einen Watch nach 1.3 der Warnkriterien geben.
http://www.sam-europe.de/warnindex.html

Nach dem heute gegen 10 Uhr ein leichter Schock am ACE registreirt wurde, und die Dichte derzeit stark erhöht ist, dürfte es wohl bald einige nette Reaktionen an den Magnetometern geben.

Als Ursache VERMUTE ich den CME vom M2,2 am 30.12.

Weiterhin wurden vom STD Neue Impact-Prediction für dem M4,4 und X1,7 augegeben:

Event #71 - 01 January 2005

Issued: 21:00 UTC, 01 January 2005

SOURCE EVENT

X1.7 Flare from Region 10715 on 01 January 2005
Type II: 1029 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: Not available

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 02 Jan to 21:00 UTC on 03 Jan
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 07:00 UTC on 03 January (2:00 am EST on 03 Jan)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #71 NOTES:

A weak to moderate sized shock front from this event should produce periods of active to storm level geomagnetic conditions after it arrives on 03 January. There is increased uncertainty in the time of arrival estimate of this event due to the lack of SOHO LASCO imagery. If the disturbance arrives as predicted, periods of minor to major geomagnetic storming may be possible (K-indices may reach 5 or 6).

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Event #70 - 01 January 2005

Issued: 08:00 UTC, 01 January 2005

SOURCE EVENT

M4 Flare from Region 10715 on 30 December 2004
Type II: 1378 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 1000 km/sec (East)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 02 Jan to 18:00 UTC on 03 Jan
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 23:00 UTC on 02 January (6:00 pm EST on 02 Jan)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 2

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #70 NOTES:

This is expected to be a fairly weak disturbance with the Earth intersecting the western flank of the CME. Predicted geomagnetic K-indices of 3 to 4 should dominate with possible episodes of minor geomagnetic storming (K-indices of 5). No significant geomagnetic storming is anticipated from this CME. Please note that Event #71, to be released soon, will likely indicate a stronger response from the X1 flare that occurred early on 01 January.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

Quelle: http://www.spacew.com/cme/index.html

Da das Wetter derzeit in D eher sehr schlecht ist, möchte ich keine Warnung über die Liste ausgeben, da die Bedingungen doch noch recht unsicher sind.

Auf alle Fälle ist ab JETZ für die nächsten 2-3 Tagen, und je nach Flare-Aktivität auch noch länger anzuraten, öfters mal die Daten und Infos hier zu checken.

Bei guten Sichtbedingungen halte ich (wenn auch schwache) PL jederzeit für möglich, da sich doch in den kommenden Stunden und Tagen einiges an Energie aufbauen sollte, was immer mal zu einem kurzen Substorm führen könnte.

So weit erst mal,

hoffen wir das beste, lieber Leser ;-)

Viele Grüße,

Lutz

[Helga Schöps]

Hi Lutz,
da warst Du genau 7 min schneller als ich!!! Wollte es eben hier verlinken! Kleine Leute wollen auch mal was vom Ruhm abkriegen
Grüße von Helga

[Lutz Schenk]

Moin Helga,

ich war mir die ganze noch recht unsicher, etwas zu schreiben.

Den STD-Text hätte ich später wohl gepostet, aber auf Grund der kurzzeitig doch recht hohen Dichte eben am ACE, wollte ich schnell etwas posten.

Aber ist doch auch egal, hauptsache es postet überhaupt jemand.

Viele Grüße,

Lutz

[Helga Schöps]

Hi,
bei LASCO herrscht noch Neujahrsstille!
Wahrscheinlich noch keiner nüchtern!
Grüße von Helga

[Lutz Schenk]

Eben sind zwar endlich neue bilder eingelaufen, aber die entscheidenden aus der Zeit des X1,7 fehlen :-((( (Stand 23:57 MEZ)

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... me-c3.html

Die machen das mit absicht, un uns zu ärgern ;-)

Gruß Lutz

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo Helga, hallo Lutz !

anscheinend ist nun in Kiruna auch schon was angekommen, das Magnetogramm dort ist aber nicht immer aktuell. Unter http://sams.polarlichtinfo.de gibts aber die Realtime-Daten als kleines Diagramm (oder hier: http://www.polarlichtinfo.de/wap/kir_mag.png ). Hoffentlich bringt 715 noch was in den nächsten Tagen, für den Bereich um den 6.1. ist für uns hier mal leichtere Bewölkung angesagt worden.

Viel Glück im neuen Jahr !

Gruß
Ralf

[Lutz Schenk]

Hallo Zusammen,

hier noch der Watch des STD:

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 23:45 UTC, 01 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC (7 pm EST) 02 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 04 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 03 JANUARY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02-04 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 22, 27, 15, 10 (02 - 05 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS ON 03 JAN
MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO
VERMONT TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO
SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

A major class X1.7 solar flare observed within the first 30 minutes of
the New Year has the potential to produce a modest auroral display on 03
January. In addition, effects of an earlier partially Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejection associated with a class M4 flare from the same active
region, combined with anticipated effects of a coronal hole based
disturbance, could produce an extended period of enhanced auroral activity
effective immediately through to 04 January. The most intense phase of
activity is expected to be on 03 January (early morning hours of 03 January
for North Americans) when the mass ejected from the X-class flare is expected
to arrive. Although no significant auroral storming is expected, periods of
activity may become sporadically strong enough to be observed across fairly
wide-spread middle latitude locations during the next 48 to 72 hours.
Observations prior to local midnight will provide the darkest skies, prior to
moonrise.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
04 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com. For discussions of activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

Quelle: http://www.spacew.com/www/midlatwchrpt.html

Sieht mir doch recht verhalten aus...

Leider wohl auch auf Grund der fehlenden Lasco-Bilder.
Schon seltsam das genau die aus der Neujahrsnacht nicht da sind...

Böse Zungen würden ja Absicht unterstellen... ;-)

na ja, mal sehen was da so kommt, oder auch nicht.

Viele Grüße,

Lutz

[Helga Schöps]

Hi,
neueste Meldung:

Updated: 06:55 UTC 02 Jan (1:55 am EST, 02 Jan)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

An auroral activity watch is active through 04 January inclusive due to effects of a coronal hole based disturbance combined with effects of recent coronal mass ejection activity.

Solar Activity Update

Region 715 has the potential to produce isolated M-class flares and may (for a few more days) have the potential to produce an isolated major flare.

http://www.spacew.com/plots.php

Die entscheidenden C3 fehlen immernoch.

Grüße von Helga