bis jetzt hat sich das IMF leider sehr kontraproduktiv verhalten, meist nördliches Bz. Folglich hat es in Scheggerott und an den SAMs nur zu einem K5 gereicht (http://www.dk0wcy.de/magneto/magnet.htm http://www.sam-europe.de/sam_online_grid.html)
Persönlich erwarte ich auch nichts mehr bei der derzeitigen Entwicklung, so langsam läuft uns auch die Zeit und das magnetische Oval davon.
Hier noch die STD-Notes:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forumnotes.htmlLatest Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Conditions
Updated: 02:15 UTC 22 January (9:15 pm EDT, 21 January):
The first of several coronal mass ejections impacted the Earth near 01:40 UTC
on 22 January (1 hour and 20 minutes off from our original prediction for this
event). Periods of active to minor geomagnetic storm activity are anticipated at
the present time, with a distinct possibility for periods of major geomagnetic
storming later. The arrival of additional coronal mass ejection disturbances over
the next 24 to 48 hours should help keep levels of geomagnetic and auroral
activity elevated.
Solar Activity Update
Region 540 was involved in a series of complex solar events on 19/20 January
that included a major class M6.1/2N solar flare at 07:43 UTC on 20 January
and a full halo CME observed several hours earlier. The major solar flare may
also have been associated with a halo CME. Effects of the preceding full halo
CME may have resulted in substantial dimming of the M-flare associated CME (if
in fact one occurred). The M-class flare associated CME (if it exists) could
arrive near the mid-UTC hours of 22 January.
A possible third (at least partial and possible full) halo CME was observed near
04:10 UTC on 21 January in the southeast quadrant associated with a parallel
ribbon hyder flare (filament eruption). Insufficient data is available to base a
prediction on, but it appears the disturbance will probably arrive on 23 January
from a preliminary quick-look at the available data.
Grüße
Bernhard