M 9.3 Flare.Ab 00.44 UT steigt wieder auf M5,9 um 0100+M3.6

[adalbert.welnowski]

Hallo.

Im X-Ray sieth so aus als waere es eine 3-fache Flare



Grüsse

Wojtek

Nochmal ab 0140 auf M3.6 um 0202

[Peter Wloch]

Wusste doch, das zur Geisterstunde was kaeme ;-)
leider nicht ganz die X Grenze, aber es kann ja gut noch besser werden :-)

[Peter Wloch]

Schoener Langzeitflare, jetzt langsam nachlassend, immerhin zwei Stunden im Schnitt bei M 4.0.

Wie wirds Wetter demnaechst ?

[Sebastian Lilienthal]

Wow, sieht fast nach Full-Halo aus...zwar kein starker CME, aber immerhin ist 696 derzeit fast genau in der Mitte der Sonnenscheibe.



Grüße,

Sebastian, der die nächsten Nächte auf gutes Wetter hofft

[Peter Wloch]

Hier mal die Einschaetzung von Jan Alvestad:

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.html

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
November 6: This region produced a major M9.3 flare at 00:34, a major long duration M5.9 event peaking at 00:51 and a long duration M3.7 event peaking at 01:57 UTC. These events were clearly separate in GOES SXI images with different centers within the region. A complex full halo earth directed CME has been observed in LASCO images.
November 6: A fast and large CME aimed almost directly at Earth was observed early in the day following a sequence of M class events in region 10696, the largest was an M9 event just after midnight. This CME could reach Earth during the latter half of November 7 or early on November 8.

Hier gibts die Wetteranimation der letzten 12 Stunden:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fssatms1.html

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today2.html

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Nov 5 at 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Several M-class flares with an isolated major flare are possible from Region 696.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels.
#The anticipated shock from the full halo CME related to M5/Sn that occurred on 03 November at 1547Z and is expected to arrive on 06 November.
A weaker shock is expected late on the sixth, early on 07 November as a result of the long duration C6/Sf event from 04 November that occurred at 0905Z indicated by the resulting partial halo CME.
A third shock passage is expected late on the seventh, early on 08 November due to the resulting partial halo CME that occurred today in response to the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray events of today.
Due to the magnetic complexity and frequency of M-class flares from Region 696 there exists a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit to exceed threshold in response to further major flare activity.

[Sebastian Lilienthal]

Hier nochmal der CME im C3 als Animation:



Grüße,

Sebastian