MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (21.01.2004)

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 09:30 UTC, 21 JANUARY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC (4 pm EST) ON 21 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 03:00 UTC ON 22 JAN, +/- SEVERAL HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: LATE 21 - 22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 20, 15 (21 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN
POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection is enroute to
the Earth. Impact of this disturbance is expected to occur during the early
UTC hours of 22 January (our target time is estimated near 03:00 UTC, give or
take several hours). NOTE that this correponds (for North American observers)
to the evening hours of 21 January (Wednesday night). Auroral activity could
intensify to moderately strong levels following the arrival of the
disturbance and may provide sporadic opportunities to observe auroral
activity over fairly wide-spread middle latitude regions. The near-new phase
of the moon will help ensure optimally dark skies for all regions.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
23 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **



http://www.spacew.com/www/midlatwchrpt.html

[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

oder sind da auch die anderen..mehr oder weniger für das Magnetfeld wirksamen Ereignise mit drin??

So wie ich das bei spacw.com herausgelesen habe, gab es ja einige Ereignisse, aber die Warnung wohl nur für das eine benannte??!!