MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (21:10 UTC, 11 JULY)

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 21:10 UTC, 11 JULY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 12 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 JULY - 12 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 15, 10, 10 (12 JULY - 15 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL
MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO
FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
TO
WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO
VERMONT TO
MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN AND
POSSIBLY
EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A small coronal hole disturbance has impacted the Earth and is
producing periods of enhanced auroral activity, primarily over the
high latitude regions at the present time. Some equatorward motion of
the auroral oval is expected over the next 6 to 12 hours that could
promote observations of activity over some dark-sky middle latitude
regions. Although no significant auroral storm activity is expected,
localized substorming could produce moderately strong auroral activity
for brief periods of time, particularly over the southern hemisphere
high latitude regions. Nothern hemisphere high latitude regions will
suffer from the extinctive effects of twilight conditions.

Also of potential interest is a new active region that is
approaching the southeastern solar limb. It appears to be moderately
hot at the present time and may support energetic events. More will be
known over the coming days as this region rotates into view.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 12
July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **
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