MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (22:10 UTC, 04-07-27)

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hallo!

Hier der wohl abschließende Watch für diese Aktivitätsphase.
Der entscheidende Satz steht ganz unten...und lautet:
"...this will probably be the last major burst of auroral activity for a time."
Gruß

Ulrich

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING DOWNGRADED TO A WATCH
Updated: 22:10 UTC, 27 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 28 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: NONE EXPECTED

HIGH RISK PERIOD: NO HIGH-RISK
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 22, 12, 10, 10 (28 JULY - 31 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW-WEAKLY MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = NO MAIN BELT
MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
VERMONT/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO CENTRAL NORWAY TO CENTRAL SWEDEN TO FINLAND
TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

The middle latitude auroral activity warning has been downgraded to a
watch. This watch pertains primarily to the decaying residual activity
associated with the intense storm of 27 July. During the decaying phase of
strong storms, residual activity can sometimes be observed despite poor solar
wind conditions. There is a slight chance that some dark-sky upper-middle
latitude regions may spot infrequent periods of minor auroral activity over
the next 12 to 24 horus. Again, no significant auroral storm activity is
expected. Mostly quiet forms of auroral activity (diffuse glows, quiet arcs,
etc) should dominate, if anything is visible at all. There are no other known
coronal mass ejections directed Earthward at this time. As a result, this
will probably be the last major burst of auroral activity for a time.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
28 July. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **
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