M9.1 gestern - CME-FF-Ankunftsvorhersage

[Bernhard Dorner]

Hi Leute, das kam vor kurzem raus. Gibts schon die HALO-Mail dazu? Sind ja interessante Punkte vermerkt, vielleicht doch full-halo?

Siehe hierzu auch http://gse2.gi.alaska.edu/recent/

Grüße
Bernhard

22 July 2004, 0040 UT: Exercise #548* ----run: 22 July 2004.
(Time since last event: ~1 day, 12 hrs)

Our ensemble's prediction window is indicated as follows:
STOA: Shock will arrive 1743 UT, 23 July 2004; TT=41h03m; Ma=4.6.
STOA-2: Shock will arrive 2214 UT, 23 July 2004; TT= 47.2hr; Ma=2.8.
ISPM: Shock will arrive 1320 UT, 23 July 2004; TT=36h40m; SSI=1.1.
HAFv2: Shock will arrive 1200 UT, 23 July 2004; SSI=0.27; deleta
momentum flux = 1.9 nPa..

Input for models: STOA, STOA-2, ISPM, and HAFv.2 are:
# Date Start Time Vs Tau Location Vsw
548* 22 July 0040 UT 1370 km/s 1hr N03E17 600 km/sec

GENERAL DESCRIPTION: An M9.1/? flare took place in AR0652 at N03E17 as
measured by GOES-12/SXI at 0017-0040-0042 UT. The full disk X-ray
observation by GOES-12-XRA was at 0014-0032-0043 UT. No H-alpha nor
metric Type II or IV observations were reported. This flare was
followed later in the day by a series of C-class flares from the same
active region: C1.6 (maximum SXI at 0642 UT); C2.0 (0704 UT max); C5.3
(0806 UT max), plus two more at 0918 UT and 1120 UT. The peak times for
the latter three flares were, respectively, 0638 UT, 0700 UT, and 0759
UT as measured by GOES-12/XRA full disk instrument. Guillermo Stenborg
(SOHO/LASCO Operations Scientist) reported several significant CME
events associated with the M9.1 and the subsequent three flares. At
0742 UT, in C3, he notes that an event spanned 100 degrees from PA -140
to ~240 with a mean plane-of sky (POS) speed ~500 km/sec at PA ~180
deg. This faint and diffuse wide loop front developed from this time in
the NNE to the SSW and seemed to surround the C3 occulting disk an hour
later with a mean POS of 913 km/sec at PA~210 deg and ~652 km/sec at
PA~30 deg. Dr. Stenborg, therefore, concludes by determining this event
to be a "faint 'full' halo CME frontsided". We believe that this CME
accelerated into the fast flow behind the shock that originated in the
flare of 20 July (noted in our FF#547) and that arrived at ~0945 UT
today. With the assumption that an undetected metric shock travelled
above this CM flare site with a speed of 50% higher than the peak CME
speed noted above (913 km/sec) to account, crudely, for a cosine effect,
we will take Vs = 1370 km/sec with a piston driving time, tau = 1 hr
(suggested by the M9.1 XRA temporal profile.) The high speed stream at
L1, measured by ACE/SWEPAM and SOHO/MTOF (behind the in situ #547 shock
at ~0945 UT, was Vsw~600 km/sec. ACE/EPAM/SIS indicate arrival of
acceperated higher protons, possibly from this new #548* shock (the
asterix indicating incomplete data).

[PeterKuklok]

und hier die STDCMEETA *g*

PS: Danke an Ralf, CME-Benachrichtigungsservice klappt vorzüglich

Event #63 - 22 July 2004
Issued: 04:15 UTC, 23 July 2004

SOURCE EVENT

Class M9.1 Flare from Region 10652 on 22 July 2004
Type II: None reported
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 652 to 913 km/s

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 10:00 UTC on 23 July to 06:00 UTC on 24 July
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 16:00 UTC on 23 July (12:00 pm EDT on 23 July)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD


EVENT #63 NOTES:

The arrival of this disturbance should prolong geomagnetic storm activity currently in-progress.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

naja...da bin ich skeptisch...zumal bei EPAM KEIN Anstieg, sondern Abfall festgestellt werden muss (was aber auch andere Ursachen haben kann)
gut wäre es aber :lol:

[PeterKuklok]

...sondern Abfall festgestellt werden muss

Wilde Müllkippen am Lagrange-Punkt 1, soweit ist es also schon gekommen.
Ja, ja, der interplanetare Raum ist auch nicht mehr das, was er einmal war...traurig, traurig.

[Ulrich Rieth]

Moin!

Wilde Müllkippen am Lagrange-Punkt 1, soweit ist es also schon gekommen.
Ja, ja, der interplanetare Raum ist auch nicht mehr das, was er einmal war...traurig, traurig.

Ne, ne, dass sie die MM Versuchsstationen.
Demnächst wird doch das Messnetz bis zur Sonne hin erweitert und ein WWZ gegründet
Naja, nur blöd, dass die Killersats der Gegenpartei schon vorher da waren
Cheers!

U.