MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING (22.07.2004)

[PeterKuklok]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 20:25 UTC on 22 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 23 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22-23 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 24 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 45, 20, 20, 15 (23 JULY - 26 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 32 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA
TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

IRELAND AND EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO LUXEMBOURG TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO
POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Solar wind conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for producing
periods of moderate to strong auroral storm activity. Activity should become
visible over fairly widespread middle latitude regions if conditions persist.
Europe is expected to be best placed to observe this activity. There is some
question as to whether strong activity will persist long enough for North
America to see activity when darkness falls. It may be in decline by then.
However, there is a chance activity may further intensify over the next 24
hours due to an additional possible impact from a coronal mass ejection
(CME). It is not yet possible to determine with certainty whether today's
observed impact at 10:38 UTC (6:38 am EDT) was the anticipated disturbance
noted in the previous middle latitude auroral activity watch. The available
data hints that another CME might still be enroute to the Earth, or that the
upstream solar wind structures are unusually complex at this time. Observers
are encouraged to keep a close eye on the sky during the next 24 to 48 hours.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
23 February. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **

[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

die klingt ja gar net mal schlecht...hoffe unsere Nordlichter haben alles Schussbereit...vielleicht klappt es auch ind er Mitte..hier noch einzelne tiefe Wolken...