MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH UPDATED: 06:20 UTC, 19 JUNE 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 19 JUNE

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 19 JUNE (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 19 - 20 JUNE

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 22, 20, 15, 12 (19 JUNE - 22 JUNE)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A minor enhancement of solar wind conditions, apparently related to a
solar coronal hole, is producing enhanced levels of auroral activity. High
latitude substorming may become strong enough at times during the next 6 to
12 hours to produce periods of visible activity over some isolated and
localized middle latitude regions. No widespread middle latitude sightings of
activity are anticipated. However, some periods of activity may be modestly
energetic from high and upper-middle latitude locations.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 19 June.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim

** End of Watch **

[Heiko]

Hat es in Deutschland "durch" ein CH in den letzten Jahren bereits einmal PL gegeben ? *o.T.*