STD MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Dirk Obudzinski]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 07:50 UTC, 21 AUGUST 2003

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 26 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 21 - 22 (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 23 - 26 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 25, 25, 25 (19 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 5 TO 6 DAYS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE AFTER MOONRISE IN EARLY MORNING

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN

GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A coronal hole based disturbance has arrived and is producing periods of
minor auroral substorm activity. There is a chance some dark-sky middle
latitude regions may spot periods of activity over the next several days.
This disturbance is expected to be relatively long-lived - perhaps lasting 5
or 6 days.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
26 August. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html