AE-Index zur Prognose

[Robert Wagner]

Hallo,

gesern bin ich auf einen Plot des World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto gestossen, der mir für eine zeitnahe Substorm-Vorhersage geeignet erscheint, nämlich der AE-Index und verwandte Grössen:

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ae_realti ... 60412.html

Die Erklärung dazu von https://wiki.oulu.fi/display/SpaceWiki/ ... ty+indices:

AE index is an auroral electrojet index obtained from a number (usually greater than 10) of stations distributed in local time in the latitude region that is typical of the northern hemisphere auroral zone (Davis and Sugiura, 1966). For each of the stations the north-south magnetic perturbation H is recorded as a function of universal time. A superposition of these data from all the stations enables a lower bound or maximum negative excursion of the H component to be determined; this is called the AL index. Similarly, an upper bound or maximum positive excursion in H is determined; this is called the AU index. The difference between these two indices, AU-AL, is called the AE index. Notice that negative H perturbations occur when stations are under an westward-flowing current. Thus the indices AU and AL give some measure of the individual strengths of eastward and westward electrojets, while AE provides a measure of the overall horizontal current strength. Excursions in the AE index from a nominal daily baseline are called magnetospheric substorms and may have durations of tens of minutes to several hours.

Und kurz zusammengefasst, siehe: https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/auroral-e ... c-activity

The AU and AL indices are intended to express the strongest current intensity of the eastward and westward auroral electrojets, respectively. The AE index represents the overall activity of the electrojets, and the AO index provides a measure of the equivalent zonal current.

Bisher habe ich diesen Indizes keine Beachtung geschenkt, mir scheinen sie aber zur zeitnahen Prognose sinnvoll zu sein. Hat jemand von Euch schon mal darüber nachgedact, diese Daten vielleicht etwas weniger komplex als oben dargestellt zu plotten bzw. daraus Warnkriterien abzuleiten? Der Plot wäre vielleicht ja auch was für die Polarlicht-Vorhersage-Seite.

Viele Grüße,
Robert